Why a revolution in Zimbabwe is destined to fail, for now

This article is written in response to "We are our own Liberators" by Trevor Ncube first published in Mail and Guardian

Can the Egypt/Tunisia revolutionary model work in Zimbabwe? Many of us Zimbabweans who have watched over the years with impotent anger and often hapless bombast as the ZANU-led thug regime has desecrated every democratic ideal in its war against its own people have repeatedly asked ourselves this question. The comparisons between Zimbabwe and Egypt are compelling: both were/are headed by aging, brutal dictators who have adapted all state apparatus to keep their tight fisted control of the country and its resources in place. Both have young dynamic, aspiring populations and as Trevor Ncube's insightful piece points out, both have long-standing scores to settle with their governments. But upon reflection I have come to the sad conclusion that here the similarity ends.

Positing the possibility of a popular revolt in Zimbabwe is guardedly optimistic at best, willfully naive at worst. Ncube's thoughtful piece is a mixture of both. Assuming a popular revolt does break out, Ncube's faith in its possible success hinges upon 2 main ideas/speculations: the first that some of the rank-and-file officers of the military may not adhere to the strictly partisan beliefs of their superiors thus maybe they'll refuse to fire on their own people. Secondly, he thinks that even if they do decide to fire upon innocent people, the sight of hundreds of innocents killed will focus the world's conscience and goad the international community in general and South Africa in particular to force the regime's hand. The first assumption is mere speculation which may or may not be justified. We would have to also hope that in addition to the rank-and-file resisting the use of force, the gangs of thugs and militiamen who are relied upon by the regime (reports in 2008 suggested that there may even have been involvement of Angolan military in the intimidation of voters in villages) will be vanquished. The second assumption that even if the worst extent of the state's repressive apparatus is brought upon innocent people, the ratcheting up of the body count will force the region to react is equally speculative and places undue faith in the spineless leaders of our region. Let us not forget that in recent years, during Operation Murambatsvina when millions of people were displaced and thousands lost their livelihoods in the informal sector, creating a massive humanitarian crisis, the regime was not so much as rapped on the knuckles for its callous behavior. Even more recently, in 2008, when reports were emerging of whole villages held under siege for voting for the opposition during which torture, rape and murder were rampant, the region led by Mbeki hardly expressed the slightest concern. Indeed, Mbeki's "there is no electoral crisis in Zimbabwe" comment underlined for most Zimbabweans the gruesome complicity of the region in sustaining Mugabe's evil rule.

So what hope is there for change in Zimbabwe? Popular revolt may indeed come to fruition given the sheer futility of existence in the country being felt by one and all. Yet let us remember that even in Egypt, it wasn't the futility of existence or the networking capacity of the youth alone that brought down the regime. The military had become less supportive of the Mubarak regime after he had decided to install his son Gamal as his successor without consulting them. When the popular revolt broke out, the military sensing an opportunity did not resist the popular wave of discontent but waited for US to give consent to his removal. When the US gave its backing to the military, he was swiftly swept out of power. The only hope for change in Zimbabwe therefore is an internal squabble within the top brass of ZANU PF/military in which some individuals side with a popular protest in removing the central elements of the regime.Therefore, despite my admiration for Trevor Ncube's work and his insight, I strongly believe no popular revolt in Zim will work just yet.

The Daily Maverick :: Stories from the African road: South Africa is not, and never can be, Zimbabwe

The Daily Maverick :: Stories from the African road: South Africa is not, and never can be, Zimbabwe

indeed it cannot be. I share the author's angst towards the rubbishing of the TRC that the intellectual left are quite guilty. It is an interesting reflection that this could be a product of the zimbabwean experience where 'genuine' reconciliation remains an elusive ideal.

The Economics of Tiger Parenting - NYTimes.com

The Economics of Tiger Parenting - NYTimes.com

interesting economic take on the 'tiger mom' phenomenon.

it reminds me in a way of the article written by jonah lehrer in

the new yorker a while ago about delayed gratification. indeed i think the same experiment was cited. Very interesting the way the set of choices available were defined in this article.

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join delicious.com

delicious.com has to be one of the coolest web applications i've discovered,albeit through the assistance indeed insistence of Chris! check it out and please let me know your IDs so that i can follow which articles you've bookmarked.happy web-browsing!

return of the....blogger

a delighted hello to those who ardently follow this space (a dependable minority one might say). This post has little to do with major ranting (although there is much to rant about) or much musing either (despite the surfeit there is to muse upon). Rather, it has to do with re-igniting a capacity for reflection, shameless self-advertising as well as providing a conduit for the words and ideas that have welled up within me over time. Some of this is borne from a recent reading binge, in particular I have renewed curiosity regarding the well-chronicled history of ethnicity and conflict in africa: I recently read through Michella Wrong's pretty excellent (rightfully so haha) account of John Githongo's remarkable stand against a corrupt Kibaki government. In it she discusses the deep-seated issues of ethnicity and tribalism in Kenyan politics. The widespread agony this has wrought across the continent is patently clear to any observer. What is not so clear is the extent to which other non-proximate factors (i.e factors other than hate-ridden rhetoric resulting from colonial divide-and-rule practices) underlie these conflicts: for instance Jared Diamond observed in his insightful account of how human societies rise and fall ( Collapse) that the Rwandan genocide occured at a time when it had the highest population density in the world and land disputes were at a maximum. Of course such deterministic accounts must not obscure the cheap politicking and sinister demagoguery that has been rightly condemned worldwide. Yet to ignore the underlying factors that well up in racial hatred is in itself a vehicle for future strife...

The case for SA sanctions against Zimbabwe

The case for SA Sanctions on Zimbabwe

“I was born here, I fought here and I will die here. Anyone who opposes me will be bashed.” These were words uttered neither by a rabid reactionary, nor by some embittered war veteran (those 20 year old ambiguities whose sad plight is to be betting chips for the next desperate politician.) These were the words of President Mugabe, whose thirst for absolute power has consumed him completely. Arrests without pretext, tortures, beatings and even murders have become the daily bread of a nation bereft of food, income, dignity and now security. Yet none of this is new or particularly shocking. Humanity’s threshold of tolerance towards the macabre and the grotesque has become so high that the liquidation of an entire nation-its dreams, its pastures, and its people simply doesn’t make the ticker tape any more.

Yet what makes Zimbabwe’s story particularly remarkable is how avoidable this spiral downwards was. Indeed, the fault lies not in our stars but really within ourselves. 27 years ago, a nascent nation emerged on the African continent, born out of a bloody war which both sides-the Rhodesian and the Nationalists’ side- were desperate to put behind them. The rudiments of a constitution whose only interest seemed to be the land question was drawn up, elections held and independence gained. A guerilla party came into power promising and extending the hand of reconciliation to a frightened white populace. The very same Mugabe of current ‘bashing’ fame, called on whites to “leave Rhodesia and come to Zimbabwe”. Massive economic restructuring was engaged in. Schools were built, hospitals constructed and the promise of independence began to dawn upon the nation. Yet even then the tremors of totalitarianism could be felt. Over 10 000 people (most of them Ndebele) ‘dissidents against the cause of the New Zimbabwe’ were murdered by Mugabe’s militias and their bodies dumped in mine shafts. These matters went largely unnoticed. Britain called it ‘an internal dispute’. A man, whose faith in violence was steadfast, felt vindicated. Today, faced with a failed economy, a ruined public sector, a dying citizenry as well as a brain drain of phenomenal proportions, violence has become the last refuge of the incompetent leadership of Zimbabwe. Its repeated purges of the constitution -outlawing political meetings consisting of more than 15 people (or is it 12? Does it matter?), the banning of a local independent daily, the murder of journalists and the brutal destruction of over a million homes in a ‘clean-up’ exercise have desecrated every international treaty to which Zimbabwe is a signatory.

And completing the cyclic nature of history, of course is the customary silence with which this has been met. South Africa’s ‘quiet diplomacy’ gives credibility to a dictatorship. At the UN where it holds a Security Council seat, in much the same way Western powers eschewed discussion of the apartheid regime of South Africa,
it has vetoed any debate on Zimbabwe.

Yet South Africa’s silence is particularly baffling. Its unparalleled constitution, its independent judiciary and the nobility with which it has made the transition from its terrible past to this optimistic present is the source of envy for the entire world. And this makes it essential that South Africa react to the situation in Zimbabwe- quickly. International organizations have declared this year-the 3rd consecutive one- as a drought year for Zimbabwe. Given the destruction of the agricultural sector (only 28% of pre-farm invasion land is currently being cultivated) this portends catastrophe for over a million Zimbabweans. Furthermore, South Africa, with the second highest income gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ (as shown by its GNI coefficient of 0.8) has had its unemployment and housing shortage problems exacerbated with the influx of over 2 million Zimbabweans over the last 5 years.

It is therefore incumbent upon the South African government to impose targeted economic sanctions against the ZANU PF regime of Zimbabwe; to freeze all assets belonging to ZANU PF, ban entry of Zimbabwean government officials into South Africa and to deport kith and kin of the ruling elite back to Zimbabwe who may be here for travel or study purposes. Sanctions serve the purpose of enunciating what should be South Africa’s unequivocal position on the gross violations of human rights. Furthermore, this will hasten the exit of the ZANU leadership and force the crumbling party into a negotiation. The current equivocation of the South African government is rooted in its perceived need to fulfill petty loyalties to unworthy African governments whose support for Mugabe and for ZANU PF stems from the bond of criminality that links criminals. Mbeki believes that for African Renaissance and NEPAD (both of which are noble initiatives) to succeed South Africa cannot afford to isolate itself from the entire continent which for the moment seems in support of Mugabe. Yet the great responsibility of the powerful often involves the courage to walk alone. Sanctions will force the corrupt leadership of Zimbabwe to decide between feeding its starving populace and buying the latest Mercedes, between sending their children to expensive foreign universities and educating the growing mass of illiterate people, between freedom and oppression. In the realm of grand ideas, this relatively minor one-to curtail the privileges of the ruling elite may seem ineffectual. But forcing the corrupt government of Zimbabwe which lives in abundance while a nation starves may indeed make all the difference.